Article 50 to be triggered in early 2017, trouble brewing in the euro zone…

Rumors have been surfacing this week that Theresa May will be ready to invoke Article 50 in early 2017 formally beginning the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. Whilst this has not had any major effect yet on the current exchange rates most analysts predict a sharp fall in the Pounds value, with market rates possibly hitting 1.08 in early 2017.

However since Brexit the rates did not fall as low as predicted and manufacturing data along with exports proved to be higher than expected. There will certainly be some choppy waters ahead I feel that the current rates may look attractive come 2017.

While the UK tries to assess what its future looks like outside the European Union the European Union itself continues to grapple with its own set of of problems. The continued problems with Italian bank debt now at 360 billion euros in bad loans and the new issue of Germany’s biggest bank Deutsche Bank being under investigation for miss selling mortgages packages before the recession in 2008. All of these problems have led to further fears of referendums springing up in member states across the union.

The short term forecast is rather a mixed bag, UK pressure concerning Brexit is still the biggest factor and likely to push the Pound down further before the year is out. However as Europe’s problems manifest this may present some choice small windows of opportunity for those wanting to purchase Euros and many other currencies against the Pound.

For those that have been sitting on currency before the referendum this is still a great time to covert back to sterling and will only last until stability returns to the markets.

As usual if you have any questions concerning your currency requirements or any issues raised in this blog please feel free to contact me at accounts@currencydeals4u.co.uk.

 

Pound to Euro at a five week low. Likely to weaken further by end of year.

The pound has come under further pressure lately as mixed data on the state of the economy and predictions for post Brexit continue to emerge. It appears this is not the bottom however with levels expected to drop down to as low as 1.05 Euro’s to the Pound (inter rate).

This week is quieter in terms of date for the UK so I don’t expect any positive spikes in the current levels. Therefore if you are travelling in the short term the current rates may be the best for sometime to come.

If you have any questions about your upcoming currency requirements please feel free to email me at accounts@currencydeals4u.co.uk.

 

 

UK shows signs of recovery while the Eurozone begins to feel the pressure…

Much to dismay of the Remain backers the UK’s economy rather than contracting is showing signs of growth and recovery. On Monday service sector PMI for the UK came out out far better than expected at 53.6 (Anything over 50 shows growth, under shows contraction), this coupled with the best manufacturing growth in 25 years has led to a resurgence in the Pound’s value heading back towards the 1.20’s (Inter Branch rate).

The UK’s economy is proving more resilient than most people expected even with trade talks with China stalling a generally positive outlook is shaping up.

The Eurozone on the other hand is beginning to feel the pinch with further woes concerning Italian banks and Greece’s debts resurfacing. All this is pointing to signs of contraction and any further stimulus introduced could cause further weakness for the Euro in the short term.

The danger from Brexit is far from over though, as we head into October and start official leaving proceedings we will get a better idea of what Britain outside the European Union will look like, this will likely cause more volatility in the markets. Therefore if you are traveling before the end of October, this month may provide some of the best opportunity’s for buying Euros.

In the short term this week Thursday may provide the best opportunity as Mario Draghi meets for the Eurozone’s Interest rate decision any further cuts or quantitative easing may produce sharp gains for the Pound.

Should you have any questions please contact me at accounts@currencydeals4u.co.uk any time.

Matt Sinclair