Pound Reaches New Highs Against The Euro

As the Easter weekend approaches the Pound touches new highs against the Euro and several other major currency pairs. A host of positive UK economic data has helped the Pound strengthen further over the last few weeks dampening fears of the damage caused by Brexit. Consumer and Producer price index’s all came out better than expected and has helped the GBP to Euro break through 1.17 market level giving the tourist rate a nice boost.

In the Eurozone the big event to watch this month will be the French elections starting on the 23rd of April with National Front Leader Marine Le Pen facing off against En Marche! Candidate Emmanuel Macron. Current polls show that Mr Macron will win but if Marine Le Pen wins this could cause significant problems for the Euro. Le Pen has already spoken of replacing the Euro with the French Franc and holding a referendum to leave the Euro entirely dubbed ‘Frexit’.

This would be a major blow to the Eurozone and may well pave the road for other Eurozone members holding their own referendums to leave the European Union in step with the UK. This cascade effect is the worst case scenario which would inevitably lead to Euro weakness and the possible dismantlement of the European Union. With the unexpected Brexit result and Donald Trump being elected President of the United States stranger things have happened!

Across the pond President Trump continues to be as divisive in his policies as we have come to expect. Following President Trump’s recent military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Regime following the chemical attack last week the unexpexted is becoming the norm. President Trump has been flexing his muscles and in part I think this was a show of strength to the Chinese where he was holding trade talks at the time of the strike. This has made a lot of currency speculators nervous and has caused a slight slip to the US Dollar making current buying levels favorable. There will inevitably be a great number of shocks and spikes for the Dollar over the rest of the year as Trump continues to enact polices and test the waters internationally and domestically.

Remember to allow for the Easter period when making your currency orders. We will be open as usual across all branches from Tuesday 18th April. For an added bonus if you use voucher code EASTER17 when placing your order till the 18th of this month you will receive the improved rate on any currency order even if its under £500.

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Happy Easter from all of us at Currencydeals4u!

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Hammond’s first budget has little effect on rates

Philip Hammond’s first budget although upbeat has done little to change the Pounds recent weakness on the currency markets. The big factor still holding the Pound back is the triggering of Article 50 at the end of this month, this coupled with the government’s recent defeats on the Brexit process in the House of Lords has left Pound sterling at a 13 week low.

Even with revised growth of the UK economy showing a positive improvement from 1.4% to 1.6% the impact to the pound was minimal. The speech itself was upbeat, but showed Mr Hammond is pulling the drawstrings tight on the treasury to build some cash in the treasury to help thwart any major shocks caused by the UK leaving the EU.

Highlights of the budget included a £2 billion pound injection into the adult social care system over 3 years but critics say this falls far short of what’s needed adding that £2 billion a year at a minimum is needed to keep the system running at the level it was a few years ago. With an ever aging population and higher demands in disability care this could come back to haunt the chancellor down the line.

Other points of note included the raising of National Insurance tax for the self-employed and a taxation on dividends starting at the first £2000 instead of the original £5000 the government had promised a few months ago.

Across the pond US President Donald Trump continues to cause controversy after claiming former President Barrack Obama wire tapped Trump tower in the elections last year. Whilst there seems to be little evidence of this, it is dominating the media in America. President Trump also signed a new executive order to circumvent the one blocked by the Supreme Court earlier this year banning travel from 7 mainly Muslim majority countries.

I believe we are likely to see US Dollar weakness as the President continues to try and enact his policies and runs into further opposition over the next few months.

As for the Pound, the picture isn’t a positive one. I believe in the short term at least further weakness is likely making the current rates attractive if you are traveling before June.

For any further information on any of the subjects covered in this blog please feel free to email me at help@currencydeals4u.co.uk. We have never had trouble beating rates on the high street and could save you money on your next holiday travel money purchase!

Inflation data weakens the £ as Article 50 looms.

This morning saw the release of a few UK data sets including the Retail Price Index and Consumer Price index. These both came in lower than expected and are currently responsible for the half cent dip against the Euro we are seeing since this morning.

Both these readings are seen as key measures of inflation that give an accurate reflection of the cost of living. Given these low readings it is likely we are beginning to see the effects of the UK’s imminent departure from the European Union.

With the House of Commons giving their approval to Prime Minister May to trigger Article 50 before the end of March and the House of Lords looking likely to agree in the next few days. May’s deadline looks likely to be achieved and the 2 year negotiations to begin on time.

When these negotiations begin it is highly likely that we will see a great deal of volatility surrounding the Pound, some analysts have suggested rates could shift by as much as 9 percent. In my opinion it is likely to weaken in the short to mid-term with the uncertainty of our position concerning the EU and indeed the rest of the world this will create.

However there will be some countering factors to keep an eye on in the Eurozone through this period of instability. France’s upcoming election is beginning to look less likely as an easy win for Republican Francois Fillon after controversy surrounding his wife and a large payment for work that doesn’t seem to have been done. This has made way for far right staunch EU critic Marine Le Pen to become a front row contender in the election. Marine Le Pen wants France to hold its own referendum and exit the EU. This will be worrying for Europe as a whole as other countries including Italy may follow France’s lead.

Across the pond President Trump continues to be controversial in his first 100 days in office.

Today Michael Flynn appointed National Security Advisor by President Trump has resigned over reports that he had discussed US sanctions with Russia before Mr Trump took over. It is illegal for private citizens to discuss US Diplomatic Policy. Such controversy is just the tip of the iceberg lately and further developments are likely to cause ripples on the currency markets.

Even with all these factors I believe the current buying rates for Euros are favourable and if you’re planning to travel before or just after March I would be seriously considering hedging your bets now rather than later.

And as its Valentine’s day for the next 7 days until the 21st of February if you use promo code ROMEO1 at the order screen you will receive the improved rate even if ordering under £500 worth!

For anything discussed in this blog or any advice on your future currency needs please feel free to contact us at help@currencydeals4u.co.uk

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A turbulent time for the world’s currency markets!

The recent rise in the value of the Pound has been a welcome relief for many Euro buyers in the last 7 days. There have been a few contributing factors owing to this recent resurgence, the most notable recent data of note was the UK Gross Domestic Product figure coming in at 0.5% this has further supported the conclusion that the economic shock of leaving the European Union has so far not been as negative as initially speculated.

With President Trump continuing to dominate the world stage the Pound has continued to quietly recover as the US dollar slips on a chaotic first few days after the inauguration. With a controversial immigration ban dominating the headlines this morning along with a financially suspect plan to build a 2000 mile long wall between the US and Mexico. I expect Dollar weakness to continue for sometime. With a litany of policies to still be enacted by President Trump volatility will be the key word in US economics this year.

I believe the next factor to decide the path of the Pound will rely heavily on whether Theresa May is able to trigger Article 50 at the end of March and start the UK’s formal exit from the EU. Though the Supreme court has now finished weighing in on the Parliamentary vote against Mrs May this is unlikely to have much of a real effect on her timetable as she still has the majority of support from MP’s on Brexit.

Given this I believe we are likely to see a weakening Pound as we approach the end of the March making current levels attractive at the moment. In the immediate short term, tomorrow sees a raft of economic data coming out of the Eurozone and any negativity is likely to further bolster the Pound if only for a short while.

For your currency needs and any information on subjects covered in this blog feel free to contact us at accounts@currencydeals4u.co.uk.

Whether you need Australian Dollars to Vietnamese Dong we offer easy reserve and collection at branches across Essex and Suffolk and are continually expanding are network. We aim to give you the best rate and the friendliest service every time!

 

 

Sterling drops sharply on May’s Brexit comments.

In the last 48 hours the Pound has lost nearly 3 cents against the Euro and significant amounts against all other trading pairs. The Turkish Lira is the exception, which has made some gains, due to Turkey’s unstable political and economic picture.

This sudden drop in the Pound can be attributed to the current UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s comments on the UK’s stance on Brexit. She indicated that it was likely to be a “Hard Brexit”, whilst not saying directly we would be leaving the single market, she certainly hinted that it wouldn’t be a gentle exit. This has shaken market confidence in the Pound resulting in the drop to below 1.15 (market level) against the Euro.

With the Supreme Court expected to give their final decision which could possibly overturn the High Court’s decision on whether MP’s should have a say on Brexit. This could potentially free up Theresa May to keep her cards closer when negotiating the UK’s exit from the European Union. Likely to be the so called “Hard Exit” highlighted by the general media, this would impact further on the currency markets causing further drops for the pound and taking us below 1.12 GBPEURO.

In real terms this means continued weakness for the pound, lasting well into March. Theresa May has highlighted the 31st of March as the date Article 50 will be invoked, on this day I expect further volatility for the Pound against most major currencies.

Though it’s not all doom and gloom for euro buyers this year. The Euro zone will be facing fresh elections from France and Germany to name a few and with far right influence appearing to be growing across the European Union any shock results are likely to have a negative effect on the Euro. This will likely lead to spikes in buying rates for those holding Pound sterling and should be acted upon.

Across the pond, Donald Trump is to be officially sworn in as the 45th US President of the United States of America on the 20th of January. The markets have had a mixed reaction to the recent election and Mr Trump’s controversial policies. I expect further volatility with big swings either way against the pound as these polices come to fruition, or don’t….

In the short term, if you’re planning on an early getaway this month, Thursday will be the next big day for the markets, with a possible Supreme Court decision expected, coupled with the ECB Monetary Policy meeting at midday. I expect big swings this day and I’m leaning towards negativity for the Pound so it may be prudent to buy your holiday money before this if you’re travelling at the weekend.

For any further information raised in this blog or help on any other currency matters please feel free to email me at accounts@currencydeals4u.co.uk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM CURRENCYDEALS4U!

Happy New Year to all our regular customers and all those joining us this year!

With Brexit, a controversial US President and political instability across the Euro zone 2017 is shaping up to be as interesting if not more so than 2016.

As part of our commitment to high quality customer service we aim to bring you currency market related news and analysis to help you get the best deal on your holiday money.

We are also proud to announce we will be releasing an app this year to help you order your currency quickly and safely and most of all at a great rate of exchange! We are also adding a few features we think you will find extremely helpful on your travels.

So stay tuned and we hope your have a prosperous and exciting year ahead!

GBPEURO to climb past 1.20?

For those of you holding out on a Euro purchase before Christmas may be presented with a window of opportunity tomorrow as the US Federal Interest rate decision is released this evening. Many analysts are expecting a hike of 0.25% bringing the current rate to 0.75%.

Should this be achieved we are likely to see a strengthening Dollar and a weakening Euro. This is due to the EURUSD being the most traded currency pair in the world and usually when one strengthens the other weakens. This may see the GBPEURO push back past 1.20 market rate level on tomorrow mornings trading.

With the UK continuing to hold ground against the Euro due to a softer stance on Brexit, this presents a great opportunity to purchase Euros before Christmas in my opinion. I feel this will be short lived though as we head into the new year when official negotiations begin to gain momentum and media attention. Continued uncertainty is likely to adversely affect the Pound going forward.

On the other hand if you are holding onto US Dollars currently the next few days are likely to present a great opportunity to sell back and buy Sterling as the Dollar strengthens its position.

In other currency news the Turkish Lira is continuing to be great value against the Pound. This is due to Turkey’s struggling economy in the wake of political instability that has plagued the country over the last year. For those looking for cheap winter sun this year and into the first quarter of next year the time is now!

In Indian economic news the deadline for exchanging up withdrawn rupee notes to new issue notes is rapidly approaching with Indian nationals having until the 30th of December to head to an Indian National Bank before the old notes become worthless.

For any information on subjects covered in this blog or help with your particular currency needs please feel free to email me on help@currencydeals4u.co.uk. Thank you for taking the time to read this blog as an added bonus use this code when placing your order to recieve the improved rate on your currency even if its under £500!! CD4UXMAS1

THE POUND CONTINUES TO RISE! BREXIT NEWS!

Over the last week the Pound has continued to recover from the lows following the referendum in part driven by sentiment surrounding Brexit. This week we gained a glimpse of the Brexit process from Brexit secretary David Davies who implied that the UK may be willing to pay some sort of financial contribution to the EU in return for continued access to the single market. This softening of position away from the “Hard Brexit” stance that has prevailed in the media has given the Pound a boost with Market levels peaking at 1.19 yesterday for GBP to Euro.

This is currently a volatile time for the Pound and the Euro we have seen swings of 2% in the last 3 weeks. Although this doesn’t sound like a big figure it has a large effect on large currency purchases.

All eyes will be on Italy on Monday as the country holds its referendum on constitutional reforms. Prime minister Matteo Renzi has said he will resign if the vote does not go in his favor. If he should stand down this will create further political instability in Italy and this coupled with its recent banking problems is likely to have a sharp impact on the Euro. Many analysts including myself believe that should this situation come to pass market levels will rise above 1.20 GBP to EURO, this will present an excellent buying opportunity for late holiday makers this year and should be capitalized upon before Market movers return there focus to the UK and its eventual exit from the European Union. We are likely to enter a very volatile period of uncertainty as Article 50 is triggered next year and this will have a dramatic effect on the currency markets

For any further information on subjects covered within this article or for help on currency orders please email me on accounts@currencydeals4u.co.uk

 

President Trump, Article 50 plans and political sentiment dominate the Pound!

The Pound has seen its fair share of ups and downs over the last few weeks and most of it not connected to hard data releases.

With the new President Donald. J. Trump taking the reigns in January and hinting on better trade relations with the UK rather than Obama’s “back of line” rhetoric that currently stands. This gave the Pound a boost against most currencies bringing GBPEURO rates to nearly 1.17 market level.

However these gains were temporarily removed when a leaked memo came out highlighting the current lack of an exit plan for the EU and the necessity to hire another 30,000 civil servants to deal with Article 50 and Brexit. This has since been rejected by the government as hearsay and in no way accurate to there current plans…

Even if this was the case and this was just another attempt to derail the Brexit process it shows how fragile the Pound is that a single memo can wipe several cents against the Euro. The Pound has since recovered some of this ground but expect further falls as we head towards March and the triggering of Article 50.

On the other hand its not all doom and gloom for the Pound with better than expected growth and slowing inflation, leaving the EU has so far not be at least in the short term a disaster for the economy.

Coupled with possible EU exit referendums and elections in France, Italy and Germany to name a few the Euro is struggling against the tide of division and Euro buyers are likely to see some good opportunities over the next few months as this political instability plays out across the continent.

In other currency news India has withdrawn its 500 and 1000 Rupee notes in an effort to control the amount of unaccountable “black” money circulating the country as well as the high number of forged notes that have been plaguing India’s economy for years. This has caused significant upheaval in the country and abroad as foreign tourists are now stuck with the notes as airports last Friday closed there tills to the old notes. Indian nationals have until the 30th of December to trade there current notes for new introduced 2000 rupee notes as long as they can provide source of funds to do so. There has been a freeze on ATM withdrawals and with 47% of daily transactions in India involving 500 and 1000 rupee notes this is likely to have a negative short term effect on the rupees value against all major currencies.

For any further information of any issues covered in this blog or to inquire about great rates on holiday currency please email me at accounts@currencydeals4u.co.uk

Production concerns arising amid weak Pound

In news this week Tesco & Unilever are currently involved in a price row over Major household brands including Marmite, PG Tips and Pot noodles to name a few. The supermarket is resisting moves by Unilever to increase prices in the UK to adjust for the sharp decline in the Pound.

Tesco’s have removed these brands from there online store at this time, price increases are always discussed by retailers and there suppliers but rarely become public news. However I expect this dispute to be resolved quickly, as neither side will want to damage there respective brands reputations.

This is worrying sign of things to come though as other major suppliers may be looking to increase there prices pushing up the price of food and goods in the UK.

This squeeze on retailers is likely to hit data coming out of the UK in the next few months and as such may cause further volatility in the pound.

Hard data is lacking as we end the working week but next week sees the release of UK inflation figures and this will be one to watch when considering a currency deal.

In other news the European Central Bank will meet again next week to discuss any changes to be made to there monetary policy. The ECB have been facing there own set of problems with low inflation and weak growth continuing to affect the economy. Any action to strengthen there position should be monitored with interest and may cause a choice opportunity to buy Euro’s in the short term.

As usual if you have any requirements for currency or would like further information on anything mentioned in this post please feel free to email me at accounts@currencydeals4u.co.uk