A turbulent time for the world’s currency markets!

30-01-2017

The recent rise in the value of the Pound has been a welcome relief for many Euro buyers in the last 7 days. There have been a few contributing factors owing to this recent resurgence, the most notable recent data of note was the UK Gross Domestic Product figure coming in at 0.5% this has further supported the conclusion that the economic shock of leaving the European Union has so far not been as negative as initially speculated.

With President Trump continuing to dominate the world stage the Pound has continued to quietly recover as the US dollar slips on a chaotic first few days after the inauguration. With a controversial immigration ban dominating the headlines this morning along with a financially suspect plan to build a 2000 mile long wall between the US and Mexico. I expect Dollar weakness to continue for sometime. With a litany of policies to still be enacted by President Trump volatility will be the key word in US economics this year.

I believe the next factor to decide the path of the Pound will rely heavily on whether Theresa May is able to trigger Article 50 at the end of March and start the UK’s formal exit from the EU. Though the Supreme court has now finished weighing in on the Parliamentary vote against Mrs May this is unlikely to have much of a real effect on her timetable as she still has the majority of support from MP’s on Brexit.

Given this I believe we are likely to see a weakening Pound as we approach the end of the March making current levels attractive at the moment. In the immediate short term, tomorrow sees a raft of economic data coming out of the Eurozone and any negativity is likely to further bolster the Pound if only for a short while.

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